Higher turnout may favour BNP, lower turnout Jamaat: BIDD

Bangla Press Desk:  A voter turnout of 65 to 68% in the 13th parliamentary election could give the BNP-led alliance a single majority, while a lower turnout of 53 to 58% could pave the way for a Jamaat-e-Islami-led 11-party alliance to form the government, the Bangladesh Institute of Democracy and Development (BIDD) said in a new report.

BIDD released its fourth-round analysis of the upcoming national election on Monday. The institute earlier published three separate forecasts. The latest report examines projected turnout, seat distribution by party, shifts in results under different turnout scenarios and polling station-based risk factors.

The report projects an overall turnout between 58 and 67%. Under that scenario, the BNP-led alliance could win between 147 and 188 seats. The Jamaat-led 11-party bloc could secure 73 to 110 seats. Islami Andolan Bangladesh may win one to three seats, while independent candidates could take 21 to 28 seats and other parties four to six.

BIDD said it used a modern research method alongside conventional opinion surveys to prepare the forecast. Researchers analysed data from national elections held between 1991 and 2008 to determine trends in voter turnout and party-based voting patterns. They also incorporated survey data published after August 2024 and applied a machine learning model to project possible outcomes.

The analysis identifies voting time as a key factor. As voters will cast ballots in both the parliamentary election and a referendum on the same day, the process may take longer than usual. Longer voting times could reduce turnout and influence the final result.

According to the forecast, about one-third of registered voters — roughly 33 to 42% — may face the risk of failing to vote due to time constraints. However, if newly educated young voters complete voting within an average of 76 seconds, overall turnout could increase by 2.3 to 4 percentage points.

The report estimates that seven to 10 parties out of nearly 60 contesting the election may win seats, while independent candidates also stand a chance of victory. It expects two to three female candidates to contest, though it rates their chances of winning as moderate.

BIDD also warns of possible tensions at polling stations over both the parliamentary ballot and the referendum. Efforts to secure more “Yes” votes in the referendum could create opportunities for irregularities in the parliamentary vote.

The report further notes that some parties may instruct their supporters to vote slowly in a planned strategy to consume time and prevent rival voters from casting ballots. Alliances may clash while trying to secure their core constituencies, raising the risk of deterioration in law and order, it added.

Source: daily Sun

BP/SP