BNP, Jamaat, NCP intensify efforts to capture AL ‘vote bank’

Bangla Press Desk:  With the Awami League’s participation in the 2026 national election uncertain due to a ban on political activities, several major political parties—including Jamaat-e-Islami, the National Citizen Party (NCP), and the BNP—are increasingly targeting the ruling party’s traditional ‘vote bank.’

Grassroots-level candidates are actively trying to attract Awami League supporters by offering assurances of safety, protection from false cases, and a smoother political environment.

Gopalganj Becomes a Key Battleground

Gopalganj, historically considered one of the Awami League’s strongest political strongholds, has emerged as a focal point of this competition.

In previous national elections, Awami League candidates won all three seats in the district by overwhelming margins, often causing opposition candidates to lose their security deposits.

This year, Jamaat-e-Islami has nominated candidates for all three Gopalganj constituencies.

In Gopalganj-2, Jamaat's potential candidate, lawyer Azmal Hossain Sardar—who last contested in 1996—is campaigning to attract Awami League voters under the assumption that the party will not participate in the upcoming election.

Azmal Sardar said he is leveraging existing personal and social relations with Awami League supporters.

“I tell them that this is Awami League territory, and if they return to elections in the future, they may vote for Awami League again. But if the party cannot contest this time, they can vote for us,” he said.

He also claimed Jamaat activists are helping Awami League supporters who were falsely implicated in cases, offering protection and legal assistance.

According to him, after the events of 5 August and subsequent clashes with the NCP, more than 30,000 people were accused across 20–25 cases in the district.

He said the party is trying to help innocent people clear their names.

BNP, too, has placed considerable focus on Gopalganj. Its preliminary nominee for Gopalganj-2, KM Babar, expressed confidence that all three seats in the district could be won by BNP this time.

He said BNP is presenting itself as the “pro-Liberation force” for local voters who previously backed the Awami League.

Babar also emphasised BNP’s promise not to pursue revenge politics.

“We are assuring voters that if elected, we will not file false cases or engage in political retaliation. Our leader Tarique Rahman has instructed us to win people’s hearts with love,” he said.

However, he criticised Jamaat’s political methods, labeling the party as a “covert organisation” that often shifts blame onto others.

According to him, BNP is not involved in the false cases or harassment being discussed locally.

While Jamaat and BNP candidates are visibly active in Gopalganj-2, NCP candidates are reportedly preparing in the district’s other two constituencies.

Why Awami League's Vote Bank Matters Nationwide

Political observers argue that Awami League’s traditional supporters could play a decisive role in the 2026 election outcome.

With the party unlikely to participate, competing political groups are actively positioning themselves as safe, trustworthy alternatives.

Awami League voters—including minority Hindu communities, who historically supported the party—are now being heavily courted by opposition groups.

Jamaat leaders have even been seen addressing large gatherings of Hindu communities in their constituencies, a notable shift from past political dynamics.

NCP’s Perspective on the Awami Vote Base

Leaders of the National Citizen Party (NCP), which emerged from the youth-led July uprising, offer a different assessment.

Senior Joint Convenor Ariful Islam Adib claims that the Awami League’s vote bank has significantly diminished and may now be below 10%.

He argued that many Awami League-aligned youths, especially Dhaka University students, defied party directives and joined the popular uprising—signaling a major political shift.

According to him, this transformation will reflect in voting behaviour.

Adib highlighted that the NCP’s leadership includes former members of various student organisations, including ex–Chhatra League, Chhatra Shibir, Chhatra Adhikar Parishad, and Chhatra Union.

This diverse leadership, he said, will influence undecided voters based on their work and credibility.

He further noted that former Awami League voters not involved in crimes may now freely choose between NCP, BNP, or Jamaat depending on local candidates and their reputations.

Jamaat’s Strategy: Attract Displaced Awami League Voters

Assuming the Awami League will be absent from the election, Jamaat-e-Islami has made overt moves to attract its supporters.

The party’s Secretary General, Mia Golam Parwar, said that although Awami League leaders may face legal barriers to contesting, their voters remain active.

He stressed that Jamaat is reaching out to ordinary Awami League voters who are not implicated in serious crimes.

“These general voters are not responsible for the misdeeds of the top leadership. They now have the right to decide who ensures safety, sincerity, and honest politics,” he said.

Parwar added that the party aims to approach all communities—including minorities—with sincerity and respect, noting that he himself recently held a major gathering with Hindu residents in his constituency.

BNP’s Position: Focus on a National Vision

BNP projects strong confidence heading into the election and has also made positive references to Awami League supporters in several regions.

The party recently held a large Hindu representatives’ conference, signaling its intent to strengthen minority outreach.

BNP Standing Committee member Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury, however, said the party is not focusing on specific vote banks.

Instead, he argued, BNP’s strength lies in its vision for the future, inclusive governance, and nationwide development agenda.

“We are not thinking in terms of groups or partisan lines. Our programme is for all Bangladeshis,” he said.

According to him, BNP aims to change political culture and move away from divisions based on religion or identity.

Despite his claims, local BNP candidates continue to target Awami League voters, acknowledging their potential to influence outcomes in many constituencies.

Awami League Voters Still a Key Variable

Given the legal and political uncertainty surrounding Awami League’s participation, many believe that the final decisions of its loyal supporters will depend on guidance from the party’s central leadership.

Until then, rival parties appear intent on securing as much of the ruling party’s traditional support base as possible.

BP/SP